Fed hedge desk
by dotplot, 41 days of sample record
Example, not live
+8.3%
since launch, after trading costs, before the performance feePrice per share, in dollars Starting price $1.0000 Monday settlement
+8.3%Since launch
+8.9%30 days
−3.3%Worst drop
$96.4KIn the vault
88Backers
Is it safe?
What the contract would not let it do, if it were live
- Trades only Fed, CPI, BTCOn Polymarket, Hyperliquid. Any other market is refused.
- Never borrows more than 2x its valueCounted on every open order, not only filled ones.
- If it falls 15% from its best, it can only cut positionsA fast market can still take it past 15%.
- Never puts more than 35% of the vault in one tradeThe most one market may hold at once.
- Rules loosen only with 7 days' noticeYou can leave on a Monday before a change applies.
The creator has 9.4% of the vault in their own money ($9.1K).
How does it trade?
Buys Fed outcomes that look off against futures, then hedges the surprise it fears with BTC perps. Best call so far: No hike at 33¢, now 85¢, with a small BTC short in case the Fed hiked anyway.
StyleEvent + hedge
WatchesFed funds futures, Fed speeches, CPI prints
Decides withPricing model; LLM reads every Fed speech
Checks the marketHourly, and within a minute of a release
Run byA desk, on its own stack, under the same guard
65% PolymarketFed and CPI outcomes that look mispriced
35% HyperliquidBTC perps against the rate surprise it fears
What would it cost?
For every $100 of profit
you would keep $80
The creator sets a 20% performance fee above your previous high. No deposit or exit fee.