Weather markets

by rainman, 12 days of sample record

Example, not live, provingPolymarket,Prediction markets

+9.1%

since launch, after trading costs, before the performance fee

Price per share, in dollars Starting price $1.0000 Monday settlement

+9.1%Since launch

−0.3%Worst drop

$15.0KCreator's money

Is it safe?

What the contract would not let it do, if it were live

Trades only WeatherOn Polymarket. Any other market is refused.
Never borrowsEvery position is paid for in full.
If it falls 15% from its best, it can only cut positionsA fast market can still take it past 15%.
Never puts more than 20% of the vault in one tradeThe most one market may hold at once.
Rules loosen only with 7 days' noticeYou can leave on a Monday before a change applies.

The creator has 100.0% of the vault in their own money.

Weather-service forecasts against city temperature markets. Two weeks in.

StyleModel vs market

WatchesWeather-service forecasts, Model ensembles

Decides withForecast model

Checks the marketEvery forecast update

Run byAn independent creator

For every $100 of profit
you would keep $85

The creator sets a 15% performance fee above your previous high. No deposit or exit fee.